There, as in Vienna, he ran with dozens of dedicated pacers, whose deliberate efforts to shield Kipchoge from wind resistance rendered the attempt unofficial. Indeed, Kipchoge has form at this kind of singular attempt, having previously attempted breaking the sub-2 barrier with a different major sponsor back in May 2017 at the Monza Formula 1 circuit in Italy. Kipchoge’s attempt this weekend is thoroughly unofficial, and he knows it. Here, runners must compete in a sanctioned IAAF competition in which the course, the competitors, the timing, and myriad other factors must all fall within strict rules. However, my analysis was confined to official International Association of Athletics Federations (IAAF) times. My research, published in Medicine and Science of Sports and Exercise, found that, with 10% chance of breaking the 2-hour barrier on a given day, we would have to wait until May 2032 for the glorious moment. So will he do it?Įarlier this year, I ran the ruler over more than 50 years of world record marathon times for men and women, applying statistical tools to answer this very question for official marathon attempts.

Kipchoge is running as part of the dedicated, privately funded 1:59 Challenge sponsored by UK chemicals firm Ineos.īut still, official or not, Kipchoge must put one foot in front of the other, at the frighteningly fast average pace of 2m 52s per km (or 4m 38s per mile), for 42.195km. This isn’t an official marathon race – far from it. How long before we break the two-hour barrier in the men's marathon? Kipchoge will run an exacting 9.6km, pinball-straight course along Vienna’s Prater Hauptallee, 4.4 times, with only the clock for competition.

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